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PAGE ONE Economics

First, economic activity was substantially disrupted, end-ing the U.S. economic expansion. Spending on goods and services plunged (Figure 1). With many businesses closed, millions of workers were laid off. The unemploy-ment rate surged to an 80-year high—to 14.7 percent in April and 13.3 percent in May (Figure 2). More jobs were

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PAGE ONE Economics

Economic models are simplified versions of reality intended to make complex ideas easier to understand. In simplifying concepts, however, some of the finer points can be missed. So, let’s discuss a few important economic effects of automation and immigration. Generally speak-ing, both automation and immigration provide benefits

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Asset Returns and Labor Force Participation During COVID-19

ECONOMIC Synopses Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | research.stlouisfed.org holds in the sample (assuming the composition of their portfolio remained fixed). In the final step, I use standard estimates for the elas-ticity of LFP rates to changes in wealth; that is, I estimate how much the LFP rate is predicted to change for each

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Please share your insights on the current economic

economic growth in long-term. Poor human capital metrics and strong outmigration put this at risk. • Knowledge economy (share of population with college degree in 2011) is positively correlated with domestic migration rates and productivity growth, between 2011-18.

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An Examination of Current REGIONAL Economic Conditions in

September 20, 2017 FOMC Economic Projections Percent NOTE: FOMC Projections are the median estimates of FOMC participants. The unemployment rate is the average of the fourth-quarter for the year indicated.

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Economic Models of Employee Motivation

Economic Models of Employee Motivation Joseph A. Ritter Lowell J. Taylor T o most people it is a common sense proposition that hiring workers is a trickier problem than buying ballpoint pens. It is often difficult to find the right worker to hire, and workers who have already been hired can quit, steal, be hung over, refuse to cooperate with

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A Consumer's Guide to Regional Economic Multipliers

gional economic multipliers,” which is a stan-dard way to identify the potential effects of a major change in a region’s economy. These mea-sures estimate the changes in output, income and employment resulting from an initial change in spending. In this article, we provide an ‘See Miller and Blair (1985) for a technical discussion of

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Pandemic Economics: The 1918 Influenza and Its Modern-Day

economic and social effects, even if these were short-lived.Inselectareas,increasingbodycounts overwhelmed city and medical officials.In some cities, such as Philadelphia, bodies lay along the streets and in morgues for days, similarto medieval Europe during the Black Death.In light

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Central Bank Independence and Economic Performance

Economic Performance N RECENT YEARS MANY countries have adopted or made progress toward adopting legislative proposals removing their central banks from government control, that is, making them independent. Between 1989 and 1991, New Zealand, Chile and Canada enacted legisla-tion that increased the independence oftheir central banks.

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Economic and Environmental Impacts of U.S. Corn Ethanol

LOUIS REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT VOLUME 5, NUMBER 1 2009 43 great importance is the financial community’s use of futures markets for crude oil and other commodi-ties as a hedge against further declines in the U.S. dollar. The economic consequences of corn ethanol production in terms of environmental effects are discussed.

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Personal Saving and Economic Growth

Economic SYNOPSES short essays and reports on the economic issues of the day 2009 Number 46 T he U.S. personal saving rate increased to nearly 5 percent in the second quarter of 2009. Although saving has its advantages, many analysts fear that a rising saving rate could hamper the economic recovery: Consumer expenditures are such a large

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Fernando Leibovici, Senior Economist Research Associate

of the sharpest economic contractions in history, the U.S. economy has rebounded rapidly and now seems to be overheated. Inflation is at its highest level in 30 years, and supply chains are strained: Shipping costs and delivery lags are increasing substantially, inventories are running down, and firms are finding it difficult to get

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Long-Run Economic Effects of Changes in the Age …

fertility rate, could translate into lower economic growth. Long-term problems in the developed world caused by an increase in the age dependency ratio could be alleviated by either increasing productivity (to avoid an economic slow-down from a shrinking labor force) or increasing the labor force participation of the elderly (e.g., by increasing

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Economic Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Model

The Economic Model. The economic problem of agents is the maximization of their lifetime utility through consumption and work decisions. Their choices determine the total number of hours devoted to consumption C t and work N t, which in turn …

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Rule of Law and Economic Growth

Economic Growth G ross domestic product per capita, adjusted for differences in purchasing power, varies widely among countries. In fact, a United Nations report shows that in 2001, real (that is, purchasing-power adjusted) GDP per capita ranged between a high of 53,780 (Luxembourg) and a low of 470 (Sierra Leone), as meas-

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The Baby Boom and Economic Growth

THE BABY BOOM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH December 1994 ABSTRACT Thispaperpresents a model ofeconomic growth based on thelife-cyclehypothesis to determine thepath ofcapital accumulation and economic growthas thebaby boom passes through the U.S. economy. The model predicts that a baby boom causes a temporary decline ofthecapital-labor ratio.

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The 2001 Recession: How Was It Different and What

economic activity to date peaks and troughs, their trough quarters do not always correspond to actual peaks and troughs of aggregate output. 7 Table 1 also shows that the actual peak-to-trough percentage decline in real GDP during the recessions following the three longest expansions was about 1 percent, versus 2.6 percent for all other post

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The Current Recession: How Bad Is It

Economic SYNOPSES short essays and reports on the economic issues of the day 2009 Number 4 O n November 28, 2008, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared that a recession began in the United States in December 2007.1This committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic

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Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the

Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, Enrique Martínez-García, and Christopher J. Neely 1 INTRODUCTION In this article, we summarize macroeconomic outcomes during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and subsequent economic expansion from the point of view of the Federal

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Economic Vulnerability and Financial Fragility

economic and financial outcomes it will experience. We summarize race- or ethnicity-based influences on educational attainment in the concept of a legacy of discrimination. Although overt discrimination in housing, education, employment, and other spheres may be less evident Emmons and Noeth

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A Monetarist Model for Economic Stabilization

of economic stabilization. Since the economy is con-sidered to be basically stable, and since most major business cycle movements in the past have resulted from inappropriate movements in the money stock, control of the rate of monetary expansion is the means by which economic instability can be minimized.

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A Descriptive Analysis of Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators Ronald A. Rat/i I LLIACH month the U.S. Department of Commer-ce publishes a series of economnic indicator-s, the most widely followed of which are the composite indexes of leading, coincident and lagging indicators.’ The significance attached to these series is attested to by the promptness with which their- month-to-month

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Economic Theory and Forecasting

economic activity is most likely to be. ‘When actual and desired levels differ, appropriate application of monetary, fiscal, or other public policy may serve to move the actual closer to the desired value. Empirical Earccast.s Methods of economic forecasting may be divided in-to two major classes. One class uses primarily an em-

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Economic Freedom and Employment Growth in U.S. States

the growth of U.S. states as well. Economic and political institutions, such as business regula tion, taxation, and government spending, differ across state governments just as they do across national governments. To date, however, empirical mod els of state economic growth have essentially ignored the potential role of state economic and political

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Global Value Chains and U.S. Economic Activity During COVID …

decline of economic activity during the first half of 2020? A fundamental challenge to addressing this question is the potential relation between an industry’s global organization of production and its sensitivity to aggregate shocks to the demand for its goods. For instance, take the case of durable goods such as automobiles, which

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The Unemployment Rate as an Economic Indicator

that the economic recovery is weaken-ing, such increases intensify pressure for adopting policy measures designed to reduce unemployment. MEASUREMENT The basic source of labor market ithormation is the monthly survey data collected by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The civilian noninstitutional population is

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The 1976 Economic Report and the Federal Budget: Toward a

economic strategy for 1976 and future years. An enunciation of macroeconomic goals along with a pro-posed course of policy actions to achieve them is found in three documents — the Federal Budget for Fiscal Year 1977, the Economic Report of the President, and the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers. These three documents present

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CURRICULUM VITAE (Jan. 2010) YI WEN Federal Reserve Bank

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 25 (2001) 1221-1240. [8] "Residential Investment and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance 2 (November 2001), 437-444. [9] “Joint time-frequency distributions for business cycle analysis,” (with Sharif Raihan and Bing Zeng) Lecture Notes in . Computer Science 2252 (2001), 347-358.

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Economic Pause, Acceleration, and Excesses

Economic Pause, Acceleration, and Excesses 1967 in Retrospect ltT ±‘1INETEEN SIXTY-SEVEN was the seventh con-secutive year of economic expansion. Real product rose about 3 per cent from the end of 1966 to the end of 1967, compared with 4 per cent in the previous year. During the recovery and expansion from early 1961

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How Would Modern Macroeconomic Schools of Thought …

The Liber8 ® Economic Information Newsletter is published 9 times per year, January through May and August through November. The newsletter is a selection of useful economic information, articles, data, and websites compiled by the librarians of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Research Library.

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Does the Stage of the Business Cycle Affect the Inflation

economic slack and the inflation rate. Similarly, an acceleration in monetary growth can cause a temporary reduction in slack in the economy while fueling the longer-term trend rate of growth of the money stock and, consequently, the inflation rate. Such a sequence of events would ensure that an ac-celeration in the rate of inflation, as well

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Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Times of Crisis

The Liber8® Economic Information Newsletter is published 9 times per year, January through May and August through November. The newsletter is a selection of useful economic information, articles, data, and websites compiled by the librarians of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Research Library.

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A Macroeconomic Analysis of Obesity

economic cost of eating home prepared meals. Households respond optimally to this decline in relative costs by consuming more food prepared away from home. Our task is to determine how much of the 1The standard de nition of obesity is a BMI (body mass index which is weight divided by height squared) over 30 kg=m2. BMI is a routinely used

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t a i o n a d j u s t Economic SYNOPSES e d a t e o f a

Economic SYNOPSES short essays and reports on the economic issues of the day 2002 Number 8 J udged by historical data, the stock market is the growth-optimal investment vehicle among standard types of U.S.

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Liber8 Economic Information Newsletter

The Liber8® Economic Information Newsletter is published 9 times per year, January through May and August through November. The newsletter is a selection of useful economic information, articles, data, and websites compiled by the librarians of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Research Library.

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Measuring Financial Market Stress

Economic SYNOPSES short essays and reports on the economic issues of the day 2010 Number 2 T he recent Apublic debate over financial regulatory reform has been heated and involved. Some have argued that we need an agency charged with moni-toring financial market developments that are deemed to pose a risk to the entire financial system—or to

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Monetary and Fiscal Influences on Economic ActivityThe

respectively, on economic activity, and a 0 is a proxy for the net trend of all other influences on economic activity. Assume for the moment that the statistical results of a test using this format substantially favor monetary influences (AM) over fiscal influences (AF) in determining economic activity (AY). These

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What are the ingredients for economic growth

.:9 :8 4.> ' 3 =00 1,.?:=> .,9 .=0,?0 0.:9 :8 4. 2=:b ?3 8 :=0 .,;4?,7 8 :=0 7,-:= ,9 / -0??0= @ >0 :1 0c4>? 49 2 .,;4?,7 := 7,-:= ' 3 0 2=:b ?3 ?3 ,? =0>@ 7?> 1=:8

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A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U

economic momentum in real time based on data surprises. 8 In this figure, a net tracking indicator (NTI) is calculated based on the flow of key data released between December 2, 2013, and January 21, 2016. Successful use of this framework requires a measure of market expec -

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Yearly percent change 1.02.0 in labor productivity (2) 10

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, National Economic Trends, May 2001. 2See “Computing Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence,” Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2003, 85(4), pp. 793-808. 3TFP growth, often called the Solow residual, captures the difference in output growth that cannot be explained by capital and labor input growth.

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What Is a Recession

The Liber8 Economic Information Newsletter is published 9 times per year, January through May and August through November. The newsletter is a selection of useful economic information, articles, data, and websites compiled by the librarians of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Research Library.

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Is the Business Cycle Still an Inventory Cycle

Economic SYNOPSES short essays and reports on the economic issues of the day 2005 Number 2 C hanges in inventories held by businesses draw con-siderable attention from economists because of the prominent role they play in the business cycle. Indeed, the shedding of unwanted inventories often accounts for a large portion of the decline in gross

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The Postwar Economic System in Germany: Creation

economic system lies in neo-liberal ideas whose main German-speakingproponents were W. Eucken, A. von Hayek, and A, Müller-Armack. These economists strongly influenced the “spirit” of the German consti-tution of 1949 as well as the formulation of economic policy. From the outset there was a consensus among

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The Macroeconomic Effects of Deficit Spending: A Review

independent of economic considerations. The size of the capitai stock, on the othem’ hand, is usually assumnied to her-elated to econoninic factors. The higher the rate of capital formation I investmentl, tine higher the n-ate of economic growth. Firms deter-nnine the most pnofitable level of output and, simultaneously, the optimal capitai/

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The Role of Money and Monetary Policy

the monetary view of economic stabilization. On the basis of a great amount of theo-retical and empirical research, they contend that the Federal Reserve can control the money stock and that the money stock is a good indicator of the thrust of Federal Reserve actions on output, employment, and prices. These economists have been critical of the role

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